Super Tuesday

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hobokenbob
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Super Tuesday

Postby hobokenbob » Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:20 pm

http://www.vote411.org/pollingplacebystate.php

So who's got their primary today?
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Postby Eolh » Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:53 pm

Mine is. I'm both excited and nervous. I've never actually believed in a candidate before.
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Postby dogmeat » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:03 pm

Eolh wrote:I've never actually believed in a candidate before.


I don't see that happening anytime soon over here. Damnit.

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Postby noumena » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:08 pm

Eolh wrote:I've never actually believed in a candidate before.

You really should know better.
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Postby Eolh » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:25 pm

noumena wrote:
Eolh wrote:I've never actually believed in a candidate before.

You really should know better.

I'll buy you a beer if you go caucus for Obama.
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Postby OMGBEES » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:39 pm

Two weeks to the Wisconsin primary.

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Postby Smokin_Jayz » Tue Feb 05, 2008 6:59 pm

Can someone please explain to this ignorant Canadian how your primary voting system works?

I understand that (depending on which party) whoever wins a certain primary gets X number of delegates, but who is voting? Do only registered members of the Democratic party vote in their primary?

Help?

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Postby Eolh » Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:31 pm

Smokin_Jayz wrote:Can someone please explain to this ignorant Canadian how your primary voting system works?

I understand that (depending on which party) whoever wins a certain primary gets X number of delegates, but who is voting? Do only registered members of the Democratic party vote in their primary?

Help?

You need to get one vote more than 50% of the total number of delegates (plurality) to win the primary for that party. Since third parties cannot win elections in America the primary voting day is essentially picking who is going to be the next President.

The primary system is state-run, which means rules will vary from state to state. The Minnesota party that is associated with the Democratic National Committee, the DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) Party, may run things differently than other states. In Minnesota you can vote in the DFL primary as long as you will be voting age by the general election in November and are not a member of the opposite party. Which means you can be independent. This is called an "open primary". In many states it is "closed" and you can only vote if you are a member of the party.

The number of delegates a state has is based on state population. How those delegates are awarded to which candidates is not only party dependent but also state dependent. For example, in Florida the Republican primary is winner-takes-all. In most states candidates get delegates proportional to the overall vote. In some states, like Nevada, it is precinct-based, which is why Obama got more delegates than Clinton by carrying the rural votes despite Clinton getting more votes overall.

Complicating the matter even further is the DNC's usage of "superdelegates". Superdelegates are people who count as a single delegate. They tend to be people in the party who have some amount of power. They must be a current member of the party. They include.
  • Current and former Democratic Presidents and Vice Presidents
  • All current Democratic members of the US House of Representatives
  • All current Democratic members of the US Senate
  • All current Democratic governors
  • All former Democratic Leaders of the US Senate
  • All former Democratic Speakers of the US House of Representatives
  • All former Democratic Minority Leaders
  • All former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.

The Republicans have something similar called "unpledged delegates" but I don't know enough about that system to comment on it.
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Postby Smokin_Jayz » Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:15 pm

That was quite helpful. Thanks!

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Postby OMGBEES » Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:19 pm

Eolh wrote:You need to get one vote more than 50% of the total number of delegates (plurality) to win the primary for that party. Since third parties cannot win elections in America the primary voting day is essentially picking who is going to be the next President.

The primary system is state-run, which means rules will vary from state to state. The Minnesota party that is associated with the Democratic National Committee, the DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) Party, may run things differently than other states. In Minnesota you can vote in the DFL primary as long as you will be voting age by the general election in November and are not a member of the opposite party. Which means you can be independent. This is called an "open primary". In many states it is "closed" and you can only vote if you are a member of the party.

The number of delegates a state has is based on state population. How those delegates are awarded to which candidates is not only party dependent but also state dependent. For example, in Florida the Republican primary is winner-takes-all. In most states candidates get delegates proportional to the overall vote. In some states, like Nevada, it is precinct-based, which is why Obama got more delegates than Clinton by carrying the rural votes despite Clinton getting more votes overall.

Complicating the matter even further is the DNC's usage of "superdelegates". Superdelegates are people who count as a single delegate. They tend to be people in the party who have some amount of power. They must be a current member of the party. They include.
  • Current and former Democratic Presidents and Vice Presidents
  • All current Democratic members of the US House of Representatives
  • All current Democratic members of the US Senate
  • All current Democratic governors
  • All former Democratic Leaders of the US Senate
  • All former Democratic Speakers of the US House of Representatives
  • All former Democratic Minority Leaders
  • All former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.
The Republicans have something similar called "unpledged delegates" but I don't know enough about that system to comment on it.

In Wisconsin, you are allowed to declare your affiliation at the polls. Also, you can vote in either primary, regardless of your affiliation, but you can only vote in ONE. So even if you're a Dem, you can vote in the Republican primary, so long as you don't mind not voting in the Dem. It's kind of weird.

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Postby Eolh » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:45 am

Now I know how Republicans must feel in the general election. Goddammit California, you're fucking shit up!
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Postby hobokenbob » Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:23 pm

I have to say I'm impressed with McCain's campaign. First of all, he was literally out of money just about from its start. His campaign was flatlined for a while and it's literally resurrected. Granted that's in no small part to Guilliani completely tanking. Then shit he pulled in WV last night was sneaky, underhanded, and brilliant. It made me smile to watch that prick Romney whining about it.
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Postby Bag of Ass » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:00 pm

Eolh wrote:Goddammit California, you're fucking shit up!

Was I supposed to do something yesterday?

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Postby Eolh » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:29 pm

Bag of Ass wrote:
Eolh wrote:Goddammit California, you're fucking shit up!

Was I supposed to do something yesterday?

Yes, caucus for Obama.
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Postby hobokenbob » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:23 pm

The DNC rules for primaries are actually pretty cool - and I think are going to make for some really interesting tactics in a tight race.

Unlike the repubs where some states are winner take all, and sometimes some districts are winner take all; there are no winner take all primaries, meaning all DNC delegates are basically up for grabs and "State victories" are actually meaningless except for spin. This was shown in the Nevada race, where Hill on the raw vote (and can claim she won the state) but Obama won the most delegates (and can claim the same).

Each District split its delegates proportionally to the candidates based on the vote, at the same time, since you cannot win a fraction of a delegate, the split gets rounded up or down.

Say your district has 6 delegates, and the vote is close like 51% to 49%. each canditate picks up 3 delegates. In fact each gets 3 delegates until one outdoes the other at the polls enough for round up to a 4/2 margin, so if my math is anything near correct, for that example district you need to win by 18 points (59% to 41%) before you round up to the 4/2 (59% being closer to 66% as the 4/2 delegate splitting point than it is to 50%)

In a REALLY close race, that means it's going to be almost imposible for the candidates to do anything more than split the vote in most districts with an even number of delegates (unless the particular district happens to have alot of delegates, where the treshold for rounding up gets smaller and smaller). But if you happen to live in a district with an odd number of delegates, like 7, then that extra delegate goes to whoever happens to have 1 more vote than the other, making them much more important to campaign in. We might literally see the two campaigns practically ignoring one district (where an even split is almost certain) and fighting tooth in nail for the neighboring district.



The non-uniformity of the rebuplican primaries makes the strategies really wacky. For eg, why did McCain campaign so hard in Mass. even though it's Romney's home state? McCain's home state of AZ is a winner take all state, and he's virtually certain he'll pull the majority there so there's no need to waste resources on that one, however MA, unlike most states, works the same way as the Democratic Primary, where delegates are split proportionally by district. Even though McCain can't win the majority in MA, any delegates he can manage to chip away from Romney there still helps. This is also why McCain practically gave WV to Huckabbee, asking for his supporters in WV to vote for him over Romney. He knows WV is a conservative state that is winnder take all where he can't win. What he can do is use what few votes he has to ruin Romney's chances of winning it. That's why he's ahead right now, the conservative vote was virtually split down the middle for Romney and Huckabee, Romney in the west, and Huckabee in the South. Fine with McCain who isn't popular amogst ultra conservatives, he spent all his resources, smartly, onthe more independant states - that happen to have the most delegates, and any efforts he made in those conservative states was simply to keep his two opponents balanced.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

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Postby hobokenbob » Mon Mar 03, 2008 8:54 pm

Super Tuesday Part Deux

So anyone voting in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, or Vermont tomorrow?

Since the ST, Obama has swept. so much for a close district by district race.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

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