10 percent

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10 percent

Postby hobokenbob » Fri Nov 06, 2009 3:10 pm

http://www.boston.com/business/articles ... ains_slow/

At this point in time even a very very healthy increase in GDP, like averaging +5%/year for several years, won't get a jobless rate this high down to an acceptable 5-6% until well into 2012. So this will be Obama's albatross. No matter what he does or doesn't do this fact alone probably means he's a one termer.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

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Postby hobokenbob » Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:21 pm

I link Krugman too much already - his assertion that the economic half measures taken by obama are turning the economy into his anzio. I don't really see how the administration could have politically done more than it had. centralize the banks and double the stimulus it already provided? you can't sell that.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/06/opini ... ml?_r=1&hp
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

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Postby Kauser » Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:47 pm

Depending on public opinion when it comes time to vote, he either won't have to sell it, or won't be able to defend it.
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Re: 10 percent

Postby Too-Much-Coffee Mistress » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:18 am

hobokenbob wrote:http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/11/06/unemployment_nears_10_pct_as_rebound_remains_slow/

At this point in time even a very very healthy increase in GDP, like averaging +5%/year for several years, won't get a jobless rate this high down to an acceptable 5-6% until well into 2012. So this will be Obama's albatross. No matter what he does or doesn't do this fact alone probably means he's a one termer.


Well, the election doesn't happen until late 2012, so I guess we'll see. This will certainly be used against him, but I don't know that it's quite the sword of Damocles that you're thinking it is. A great deal also depends on who the Republicans choose to run; Obama wouldn't have any trouble, I think, defeating Palin or Huckabee. Bobby "look we aren't all white" Jindal seems a likely choice.
"The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking...the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker." - Albert Einstein

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Postby hobokenbob » Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:17 pm

I'd say we should have a slap bet, but I don't want to bet against the guy i'll likely be rooting for.

Remember what happened in the 08 elections. Obama had a really energized base. Pretty hard to energize your base out of the soup kitchen lines and back into the voting booth.

Most people don't care about parties, they care about pretty much this one number, or at least how this number relates to their lives. Lets call them the "what's in it for me independants", who came out for Obama because of the crises at the time and because of how poorly McCain handled them. This will swing big against him, for two reasons: they will still be in a pretty shitty economic situation, and whoever runs against obama will be pointing to that fact and the bank bailouts every 14 seconds. This block doesn't remember or care that both their shtty situation and the bank bailouts were started up under W.

sure I hope i'm wrong, and the republicans pick such a sodding poor candidate he or she will be unelectable, or the teabagging palinites go full retard and throw in a 3rd party conservative candidate, or both. But my doom-sense is it's Jeb Bush 2012.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby hobokenbob » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:08 pm

The latest administration talk does not lessen my concerns at all. Obama seems to be caving to the conventional wisdom that we should be worried about deficits, and a theoretical increase in interest rates and / or inflation? Welcome to neo-hooverism. Why are we listening to the Wall St. thinkers that got the nation into this mess?

News flash: no matter how fiscally conservative your administration is on reigning in the deficit, the pre-conceived narative of your wild tax and spending has already been printed, passed around, and burned into that loose concept of reality your opposition adheres to.
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Postby Too-Much-Coffee Mistress » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:16 pm

Try to please everyone, you end up pleasing no one. I'll give Bush this: as much of an asshole as he was, at least up until '06 he was pretty straightforward about being like "Fuck you guys, we've got the majority."
"The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking...the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker." - Albert Einstein

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Postby Eolh » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:16 pm

Democrats never actually have the majority, even when they do. Probably the worst side-effect of having a political ideology that supports dissent.
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Postby Kauser » Tue Nov 24, 2009 3:43 am

Eolh wrote:Democrats never actually have the majority, even when they do. Probably the worst side-effect of having a political ideology that supports dissent.

There's dissent, and then there's being egocentric. Some of those guys, I'd peg for having Narcissistic Disorder.

[quote="hobokenbob]News flash: no matter how fiscally conservative your administration is on reigning in the deficit, the pre-conceived narative of your wild tax and spending has already been printed, passed around, and burned into that loose concept of reality your opposition adheres to.[/quote]




As far as the deficit, and inflation, I don't know if I've said it here, but that's been my main concern about the stimulus plans, bailouts, TARP, etc. They say inflation is the most bitter pill to swallow. Its a tax without being a tax. Though that horse has already left the gate, so there isn't really much of a point in dwelling on it.
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Postby hobokenbob » Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:42 pm

inflationary pressures are minimal right now.

our deficit is high, but as a % of gdp it's not "horrible". It's certainly something that needs to be managed, but not during an economic crisis with huge job loss and gdp loss causing real suffering now, as opposed to possible suffering from US creditors losing faith later. Fact is, US debt is still very attractive in the market, and rock bottom interest rates show that. in fact we'll spend less this year servicing debt that last year, even though we have more of it.

other less governable countries have run deficits higher than this (as a % of gdp) in the past quarter century and have managed just fine, and the US ran a higher deficit that this as a % of gdp during WWII and turned out fine.

the worst thing, from a macro standpoint, is lost potential gdp. that's basically wealth you can never get back, and poverty that will stick around and cause suffering for a long time, and we're far from at our best potential gdp.

besides what really gets my goat is who the concern trolls are these days: generally the same free wheeling, deregulating, tax cutting, rubber stampers of the past 20+ years that had no problem blowing up the deficit under R administrations on useless things that didn't help anyone but the wealthy. where the Fuck were they for the past 8 years?
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

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Postby hobokenbob » Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:55 pm

Kauser wrote:
Eolh wrote:Democrats never actually have the majority, even when they do. Probably the worst side-effect of having a political ideology that supports dissent.

There's dissent, and then there's being egocentric. Some of those guys, I'd peg for having Narcissistic Disorder.


considering the healthcare bill holdouts are being lavished not just with compaign contributions, but now specific earmarks being put into the senate bill to win their votes (literally bribing them with money to take home to their constituents). I'd say it's less about ego and more about valuing personal gain over party loyalty - and considering how hard the party has come down on Leibermann (read not at all), why should they be loyal?
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby hobokenbob » Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:46 pm

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/1 ... he-forest/

a good link to just how little deficit management is worth, politically.

No one's going to be having this thought in 2012: "well I haven't been able to find a full time job in 3 years and lost my home to medical bills since that health insurance reform didn't quite pan out, but at least the gove'ment's deficit is down 14% as a percentage of GDP! That Obama sure was a competant president!"
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby hobokenbob » Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:56 pm

A very quick article to put this years bonus in the financial industry in perspective:

http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/opinion/mori ... 1409a.aspx

Merry Christmas, you fucks.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby hobokenbob » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:59 pm

An enlightening poll of unemployed americans:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/us/15 ... anted=1&hp

also pretty saddening, frustrating, worrying....
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby hobokenbob » Wed Jan 06, 2010 6:42 pm

we only lost 84000 private sector jobs in December, which apparently is cause for celebration? I wish I could internet-slap ben bernanke.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby hobokenbob » Fri Jan 22, 2010 4:45 pm

I read in a local paper today that MA's own unemployment rate has shot up for december to 9.4 percent - the worst it's been since 1976. It had been making some gains and was down in the low 8s a few months ago.

I don't think anything else of great Scott importance in Massachusetts has happened in recent Brown months either.
In fairness, we've been building 'ground zeros' near Iraqi mosques since March 2003.

Jason Mustian

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Postby OMGBEES » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:53 pm

The Dow has been crashing pretty hard again.
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Postby Too-Much-Coffee Mistress » Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:28 am

Now to see if it's temporary panic over stimulus programs running dry or not. Not that the Dow's recent rises have done much of anything for putting people back to work, though...
"The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking...the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker." - Albert Einstein

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Postby Kauser » Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:20 pm

Well, the stock market just means you aren't making money.
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Postby OMGBEES » Mon Jan 25, 2010 11:59 pm

Just out of curiosity, did anyone else have a holyfuckhuge tax return this year?
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